World Cup Odds: Halfway Through the Groups

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Halfway Through the Group Stages

Below are the two graphs to date. This first is 18th June, just before the USA vs Slovenia game:

Here's the first graph from 20th May, before the warm up friendlies:

Explaining the Changes

The most drastic change comes in group A. Look at France's pathetic little bar now compared with their group dominating odds of the blue graph. This is of course due to their failure to even score a goal with players such as Anelka, Malouda, Ribery and Henry at their disposal. Pathetic.

Argentina's impressive attacking performances and only conceding through one howler have catapulted them to favourite status.

England have dipped a little with their failure to beat the USA; of more concern probably was their failure to dominate the game and even deserve a victory.

The Germans have taken a hit with their loss early this afternoon. Australia's heavy defeat has hit their odds hugely with a 2nd place highly likely to be decided on goal difference.

Elsewhere poor results for Spain and Italy haven't impacted in the way one might have thought. Beating Spain seems relatively easy to me - just force them outside and pack the middle. They have nothing down the flanks apart from an overrated winger who looks like a monkey.

Interestingly Brazil's inevitable failure to match their attacking prowess of past tournaments has also hit their odds despite an opening win. Unfair I think, as their strength this year is not in scoring goals.

How Did I Do Before?

I said that England lays, Germany backs (despite them not being a shoe in), and a huge Argentina back would be the way to go. I pointed out that Germany should probably be laid in the near future as they would come across problems in their group.

Here is where I sit here smugly... well I should, except my betfair account was empty and so therefore also are my betting profits!

From Here...

Disclaimer: any bets made are your responsibility, not mine. Below is merely my advice.

Back Italy. Their next two games will both be victories, and they will emerge as group winners without a major problem, facing a relatively easy 2nd round game (Denmark, Japan, Cameroon). A pre-quarter final lay will see you take away an easy profit.

Stay away from England now. It's make or break for them right now - either they will thrash the next two teams and their odds will tumble, or they'll struggle through and they'll slip further out. It's impossible to pick which way it will go.

The obvious tip is to back Spain. I'd go along with this - surely they will beat Honduras. But I worry about them against Chile. Chile will take it to them down the wings where Spain are not well protected. I can see Chile topping this group so I'd rather back them than Spain. They will for sure have the attacking flair necessary to break down the Swiss.

Spain are a quality passing side; but when your opponents sit back you can't pass it through them. You have to get it wide and beat the full backs and this is where Spain are, in short, inept.

Chile are far from that with their attacking style football. People forget they finished second in South American qualifying.

If Spain do as I predict finish second, we're in for a potentially tasty second round game between themselves and Brazil. For this reason, I'd avoid these two teams.

Put some money on Chile. They and Mexico are the underrated dark horses of this tournament. The latter I'd avoid simply because they may find themselves "agreeing" to a draw with Uruguay and therefore potentially getting knocked out in a close second round game with Argentina for the 2nd World Cup finals in a row.