World Cup Odds: Before the Friendlies

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I have an obsession for stats. I think it's a male thing - I just can't get enough of them - so in an ill-fated attempt to guess who's going to win the World Cup, at various stages before and during the tournament I'll be posting the current odds from betfair, explaining why they've changed. And more importantly for the gamblers amongst us - where they are likely to change in the future.

Then, when I write the next post, we can all see how badly wrong I was and you can all try to sue me if you were stupid enough to put your money where my mouth is.

Before the Friendlies

We know the 32 teams playing in South Africa - and we know at least a preliminary squad for most teams. So where do they all stand now?

The teams are ordered by their groups and then seeds if you can't recognise the flags (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_cup_2010#Group_A).

Spain currently stand as favourites to lift the trophy with about a 1/5 shot to make their Euro win of 2 years ago into a double.

Brazil predictably are next in the running. I'd really disagree with this - for once Brazil's defence is much stronger than their attack but I think they are really lacking inspiration up front.

Then - controversially - England are in third with about a 1/7 chance of lifting their second cup. Almost twice as likely as Germany, Holland or Italy and almost 3 times as likely as France. Am I the only one who thinks this is absurd? If I could bank roll it, they'd be a big lay going into that market from me.

Argentina come in next with about an 11% chance. If you took Maradona out of the equation, surely any team with Messi and a manager with enough sense to include quality such as Cambiasso and Zanetti in the squad would leap up towards the heights of Brazil and Spain. How much damage can a manager do to a team? (post note: I'm not sure, but definitely a fair bit to cameramen: http://www.caughtoffside.com/2010/05/21/video-argentina-coach-diego-maradona-runs-over-cameraman-and-then-berates-him-for-putting-his-foot-in-the-wrong-place/)

What's quite interesting is how the seeding system leaves all other than the first pot (except for group 1 - in which you could just replace France, highest from pot 2, with South Africa anyway) with next to no shot at winning the tournament. The only group with serious contenders from outside these teams is surely group G, with Ivory Coast the best chance Africa have and Portugal who can't be ruled out with a player of Ronaldo's class.

What will be interesting is how this changes as we approach and go through the tournament - I'll be updating once a week or so.

Where from Here?

The development of the odds up to the tournament from here will be dependent almost exclusively on two factors: injuries and friendlies.

England usually put in a good showing in pre-tournament friendlies, so expect odds to come in for them.

Ballack's injury has cut Germany's chances. If you were ever going to bet on them - do it now. Although they are, in my opinion, by no means a shoe-in to even get out of their very underrated group. The enthusiasm of Spain, defence of Serbia and physicality of Ghana (already taken a toll on Germany's bid thanks to Kevin Prince Boateng) may see them taking an early bath.

For me, the money right now has to go down on Argentina. All it takes is for Messi to do something a bit pretty in one game, a commentator to have an orgasm (it usually happens, especially if Clive Tyldsley is present) and they'll jump up towards England. Their friendlies are exactly that too - Canada, Nigeria, South Korea and Greece.

Why Betfair?

Betfair is an international site used in more than one country so the odds don't favour the host nation in the way that William Hill's or Ladbroke's might if I looked them up.

Also, Betfair is against other fans; the odds reflect true probability rather than the bookie's incentive of making as much money as possible. Because Betfair take a cut out of winnings, not from unfair odds, they're a much better guide.